Key agricultural exports in 2026: Expectations of reaching new peaks, but challenges always lurk.

In early January 2026, the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) will organize a delegation of businesses to conduct a field survey in several key provinces in the Central Highlands (such as Lam Dong, Dak Lak, and Gia Lai) to inform the forecast for the 2026 pepper crop. This is of significant importance for planning production, business, and export strategies for the entire pepper industry and individual businesses.

"When the water rises, the boat rises."

Such field surveys will help pepper exporters comprehensively assess expected yields, area, production, and real-world fluctuations that cannot be fully reflected in paper data, as well as the pest and disease situation in key pepper-growing regions.

During field surveys, businesses gain a more comprehensive perspective by observing the realities of different growing regions and engaging directly with local farmers and cooperatives. This forms the basis for developing effective procurement, processing, inventory, and export contract plans, as well as mitigating risks.

Looking back at 2025, we will see that pepper exports have set a new record with a turnover exceeding 1.5 billion USD - the highest level ever, with the main consumption markets being the US, EU, and India. This success comes not only from high selling prices but also from the deep processing capacity of businesses.

Entering 2026, analysts predict that Vietnam's pepper exports may continue to reach new peaks, maintaining positive growth and high export value thanks to persistently high export prices. However, a major challenge for this industry is a potential 5-7% decrease in production due to weather conditions in the final months of 2025.

Forecasts from the International Pepper Community (IPC) indicate that the global pepper market is entering a rebalancing cycle. Major producing countries (such as Vietnam) are advised to continue monitoring weather conditions, increase investment in replanting, and manage risks to ensure stable supply in the coming years.

As for coffee exports, after achieving historic results, surpassing the record of over $8 billion in 2025, it is predicted that in 2026 they will continue to reach new highs thanks to rising prices and increasing processing value.

However, one of the export challenges for Vietnam's coffee industry in 2026 lies in the enforcement of strict regulations from key markets.

For example, the EU is a crucial market for Vietnam's coffee industry, with approximately 40% of its coffee exports going there. However, Vietnamese coffee exporters are concerned about meeting the EU's Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which will take effect from December 30, 2025, for large-scale EU importers (for smaller businesses, the application will start on June 30, 2026).

According to Mr. Pham Thang, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, the EUDR regulation requires that Vietnamese coffee products exported to the EU must be produced on clean land, without harming forests. This forces businesses to proactively and strictly comply with the EUDR requirements from now on to maintain their reputation in the EU market.

Mr. Thang also emphasized that transparently documenting the main growing regions is the "passport" for Vietnamese coffee to penetrate higher-end markets.

Proactive adaptation is key to maintaining growth momentum.

Regarding cashew exports, after approaching the historic milestone of $5 billion for the whole of 2025 (far exceeding the initial target of $4.5 billion), the expectation is that in 2026, export value will continue to rise to a new level in major markets.

For example, according to an analyst from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the medium and long term, the EU still needs a stable and large-volume supply. Vietnam will continue to play a key role as a major supplier. To maintain and expand its market share in EU cashew markets, in addition to improving quality and investing in deep processing, Vietnamese cashew businesses need to focus more on traceability, sustainable certification, and production prioritizing quality stability over low prices.

Furthermore, regarding the challenges facing Vietnam's cashew industry in the coming period, Mr. Bach Khanh Nhat, Vice President of the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), noted the significant dependence on imported raw materials and the policies of supplying countries. Vietnam imports approximately 90% of its cashew raw materials, with 70% coming from Africa, making the industry vulnerable to external policy fluctuations.

On the other hand, according to Mr. Nhat, the Vietnamese cashew industry is increasingly being affected by international trade policies. For example, in 2025, the US increase in import tariffs had a strong impact on the industry's largest consumer market, causing cashew exports to the US to decrease by about 30-35%.

Regarding fruit and vegetable exports, looking back at the year 2025, despite facing many challenges, the sector still achieved a record high of $8.5 billion (the highest ever). This is a major driving force for this industry to aim for a new peak in 2026, with the expectation of reaching $10 billion in export value.

But achieving these new goals will not be easy. As with the key market of China and durian – dubbed the "king of exported fruits" – according to Mr. Nguyen Van Muoi, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, achieving sustainable export growth in this market in 2026 requires overcoming four major limitations: cadmium contamination, preservatives and ripening agents, the impact of extreme weather, and the issue of registered growing areas.

Meanwhile, despite facing many pressures, seafood exports for the whole year of 2025 reached over $11.3 billion, an 11% increase compared to 2024. This is a new and very encouraging record milestone, creating momentum to continue setting new records in 2026.

According to Ms. Le Hang, Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (Vasep), the Vietnamese seafood industry is maintaining relatively stable growth, with the main driving force coming from shrimp and pangasius, while other seafood groups are also recovering positively.

Nevertheless, Ms. Hang also pointed out that pressures on costs, trade barriers, and increasingly stringent standards remain major challenges, requiring the industry to continue increasing added value, maintaining good quality control, and proactively adapting to sustain growth in the future.

                                                                                                                                                      Source: VNbusiness