The 20% reciprocal tax from the US will cause difficulties for Vietnamese agriculture and fisheries.

At the "Conference to promote agricultural, forestry and fishery exports in 2025" in Ho Chi Minh City, Ms. To Thi Tuong Lan - Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said that in the first seven months of the year, seafood export turnover reached 6.22 billion USD, up 17.2% over the same period. However, some key products stagnated or decreased, such as tuna down 2.8% to 542 million USD, and in July alone down nearly 19%.

The reasons come from market pressure, high inventories in China and problems with Decree 37 causing a shortage of raw materials. Ms. Lan emphasized that in the second half of the year, seafood will face difficulties if the US imposes a new 20% reciprocal tax. In particular, pangasius will be significantly affected in terms of costs and prices, especially when the Chinese market slows down, forcing businesses to expand exports to ASEAN, South America and the Middle East.

Fruits and vegetables exported to the US also face similar risks. Mr. Nguyen Thanh Binh, Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said that in the first six months of the year, the turnover reached more than 261.6 million USD, an increase of 66% over the same period. However, if the US imposes a 20% tax, import costs will increase, reducing purchasing power and making Vietnamese goods less competitive compared to supplies from Mexico, South America or ASEAN. The US is a market with strict requirements on quality, food safety, packaging, labeling, intellectual property, social responsibility and the environment. If the corresponding tax on fruits and vegetables is not adjusted after bilateral negotiations, US consumers may cut spending, leading to the risk of a sharp decline in orders from Vietnam.

Not only in the US, Vietnamese agricultural and aquatic products exported to China also face both opportunities and challenges. Mr. Nong Duc Lai, Vietnam's Trade Counselor in China, said that the country imports about 2,500 billion USD worth of goods each year, of which agricultural products alone account for 210-230 billion USD. China is opening its doors to more products but at the same time, it is tightening quality control and traceability. Therefore, Vietnamese businesses need to quickly raise standards, improve packaging, and build brands to avoid the risk of being warned or losing market share.

Faced with this series of challenges, industry associations are proposing synchronous solutions. VASEP has identified two parallel approaches in responding to the market. One is to reduce risks by seeking alternative markets and taking advantage of incentives from trade agreements. The other is to propose amending inappropriate regulations, such as some articles in Decree 37, to ensure sources of raw materials for processing. VASEP also calls for focused trade promotion, supporting businesses to access distribution systems in ASEAN, the Middle East and South America to reduce dependence on a few large markets.

The Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association proposed promoting bilateral negotiations to reduce or exempt tariffs for advantageous products, while also recommending that businesses promote deep processing, improve packaging, and invest in traceability systems. The association also recommended increasing imports of some products from the US that do not compete with domestic products to balance trade and create a negotiating advantage.

From the management agency side, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son - Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) - said that the Ministry will continue to implement measures to combat smuggling, trade fraud, anti-dumping and open new markets such as the Gulf, Egypt, Singapore. The Department is developing two projects: "Diversifying the supply of imported raw materials" and "Taking advantage of free trade agreements when the US imposes reciprocal tariffs", in order to provide practical solutions for businesses. He compared trade negotiations to "he gives a ham hock, she gives a bottle of wine" - emphasizing the element of reciprocity.

Mr. Ngo Hong Phong - Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development, said that the Ministry of Agriculture will support businesses in terms of exchange rates, credit, logistics, technical negotiations, building standard raw material areas and developing value-added processing.

According to experts, the US reciprocal tax is a clear warning about the risks of focusing too much on one market. However, if solutions from associations and management agencies are implemented synchronously, Vietnam's agriculture, forestry and fishery sector still has the opportunity to maintain growth momentum and complete the export target by 2025.

                                                                                                                                                      Sources: Vnexpress